There are few ensures in life, and in snow-repellant Seattle, promising a winter with copious quantities of snow goes a bit too far. So, even with La Niña—the worldwide climate sample that usually makes for a snowier winter on this damp nook of the world—possible on the best way, I’m going to cease in need of assuring our largely snow-loving populace an above-average snowfall this winter.
However am I going to get as near that line as doable? You guess—and I’ll additionally provide you with three the reason why. Some are grounded extra in science, and a few extra in superstition. But when there’s something my lifelong obsession with Seattle snow has taught me, it’s that in terms of flakes flying over town, science solely will get you thus far. A little bit luck can also be obligatory.
Motive #1
A Weak La Niña Climate Sample Is Favored
At first—to appease the scientists within the crowd—the stark reality is that Seattle snowfall is statistically extra possible in La Niña winters. The explanation why is straightforward: Throughout these winters, storms are likely to method Puget Sound from a northwesterly route, dragging down cooler air from the Gulf of Alaska within the course of. Distinction that with El Niño winters like final yr, the place storms usually make a beeline for the California coast, leaving the Pacific Northwest considerably drier and hotter.
To have a look at La Niña’s affect on Seattle snowfall, we don’t have to return too far—previous to final winter’s dud, Mom Nature served up three straight snowy La Niña winters. Working example: Seattle averaged roughly 10 inches of snow from the winter of 2020–21 by means of the winter of 2022–2023—practically double town’s long-term common of six inches.
Highlights throughout this stretch included an 8.9-inch snowfall on Feb 13, 2021—Seattle’s snowiest day in half a century—and 5 straight days of measurable snowfall between Christmas and New Yr’s the next winter. And, after all, who can neglect the slip-and-fall ice storm of Dec. 23, 2022? Take a look at your TikTok from two winters in the past in case you’re drawing a clean.
The underside line: Snowless winters are uncommon in Seattle when La Niña is in play. Which is why I’ll take our probabilities this yr.
Motive #2
We Simply Had a Crappy Snowfall Yr
This leads straight to the second purpose why I feel the snow gods are more likely to favor us this yr: As a result of they didn’t final yr.
Now, clearly this logic doesn’t apply in a spot like California, however in Seattle, the statistical reality is that it’s awfully onerous to tug off back-to-back winters with hardly any snow. Actually, we’ve solely managed this doubtful feat twice this century: first in 2004–05 and 2005–06, and second in 2014–15 and 2015–16. Previous to that, it’s a must to return to the Nineteen Eighties to seek out two successive practically snowless winters. And previous to that, there have been none (relationship again to 1945, when record-keeping started at Sea-Tac Airport).
Merely put, dangerous snowfall years in Seattle are typically adopted by good ones. That’s a guess I’ll take this yr.
Motive #3
Presidential Transition Years Favor Huge Seattle Snows
My third and closing purpose is essentially the most unconventional of all, because it’s centered round politics. Barf, proper? However bear with me for a second, as a result of right here’s the rub: In every of the previous six winters the place the White Home modified arms, Seattle has acquired above-average snowfall.
The pattern started the winter George H. W. Bush grew to become president-elect, with 14.2 inches of snow pasting Seattle in 1988–89—most of it arriving in a brutally harsh February that also stands because the final occasion of single-digit climate in Seattle. 4 years later, when Bush 1 was voted out of workplace in favor of Invoice Clinton, 9.4 inches of snow fell all through the winter. Then, a month after Bush 2 entered workplace in 2001, a heavy, moist snowstorm blasted Seattle in mid-February, dumping over half a foot of snow in elements of town and shutting colleges for the day. (Sadly, snowfall data weren’t stored at Sea-Tac that winter, however seven inches is an inexpensive estimate).
You may in all probability guess what occurred eight years later, when Barack Obama grew to become President-elect. Seattle was blindsided with a staggering 23.3 inches of snowfall within the winter of 2008–09—essentially the most within the metropolis for the reason that early Seventies.
The transition winter from Obama to Trump was additionally a chilly, snowy one within the metropolis, with 11.2 inches falling all through—together with seven inches over Tremendous Bowl weekend. And, final however not least, the aforementioned 8.9-inch snow dump in February 2021 occurred the winter Biden grew to become president.
Should you’ve misplaced depend, that’s six straight presidential transition winters in a row with above-average snowfall in Seattle. Will the streak proceed this winter?
Contemporary off the heels of final winter’s dud, with a La Niña on the best way, I’d say the chances positive look good.
